El Niño–Southern Oscillation
In a typical El Niño, the strong easterly winds of the equatorial Pacific weaken due to a reversal of the normal atmospheric pressure gradient above the S Pacific between Australia and Tahiti. This allows warm eastward-flowing subsurface waters to rise, increasing surface temperatures 1–2°C (2–3.5°C), and sometimes as much as 4–6°C (7–11°C), in the central and E central Pacific. Along the west coast of South America, El Niño's warm waters persist and deepen, and cold, upwelling, nutrient-rich waters fail to reach surface waters the resulting warm, nutrient-poor waters devastate coastal fisheries. Heavy rain falls along the South American coast, and heavy rainfall also moves from the western to central Pacific, causing drier than normal conditions in Indonesia and nearby areas. An El Niño also affects the climate of the northern latitudes, particularly North America, which experiences warmer temperatures along the N Pacific coast, increased precipitation in the Southwest and Gulf states and N Mexico, and weaker Atlantic hurricanes.
Severe El Niño events can be economically disruptive worldwide. The 1982–83 El Niño was one of the strongest and most devastating. It caused droughts in Africa, Australia, India, Indonesia, and the Philippines, flooding in Peru and Ecuador, and devastating coastal storms in California. The El Niño was blamed for 1,300–2,000 deaths and more than $13 billion in damage to property and livelihoods. The 1997–98, generally regarded as the strongest El Niño, led to flooding in California and the SE United States, a severe ice storm in the NE United States and neighboring parts of Canada, flooding along parts of the Pacific coast of South America, and drought in SE Asia and the W Pacific. Although it was better anticipated in the United States than the 1982–83 event, estimates of the losses worldwide range from $32 billion to three times that. El Niños can also have positive economic effects warmer weather in the N United States can lead to lower energy expenses, for example. It has been estimated that in the United States the 1997–98 event in fact had a positive economic impact overall.
The effects of an El Niño were documented in Peru as early as the Spanish conquest in 1525. By the end of the 19th cent. the phenomenon was being studied by Peruvian oceanographers, although the effects were thought to be limited to the coast of W South America. It was not until the systematic studies of the International Geophysical Year of 1957–58 that the extent of the meteorological impact of El Niño was recognized.
See M. H. Glantz, Currents of Change: El Niño's Impact on Climate and Society (1996) B. Fagan, Floods, Famines, and Emperors: El Niño and the Fate of Civilizations (1999).
The Columbia Electronic Encyclopedia, 6th ed. Copyright © 2012, Columbia University Press. All rights reserved.
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