Syria: The Assad Regime

The Assad Regime

Al-Assad successfully ousted al-Attassi in Nov., 1970. In early 1971, al-Assad was overwhelmingly elected to a seven-year term as president; he was reelected three times. Later in 1971, Syria, Libya, and Egypt agreed to unite loosely in the Federation of Arab Republics. Syria continued to be on good terms with the USSR, which equipped the Syrian army with modern weapons. In early 1973 a new constitution was approved, and the Ba'ath party won 70% of the seats in elections for the people's council. In July–Aug., 1973, about 42 army officers (all Sunni Muslims) were executed after allegedly plotting to assassinate al-Assad, who, they claimed, showed undue favoritism to his fellow Alawite Muslims in the army. (Al-Assad did indeed favor the Alawites in the army and government.)

In Oct., 1973, the fourth Arab-Israeli War erupted; after initial Syrian advances in the Golan Heights, Israel gained the offensive and pushed into Syria a few miles beyond the Golan Heights region. Syria (like Israel) accepted the UN Security Council cease-fire resolution of Oct. 25, 1973, but fighting continued into 1974. In May, 1974, largely through the mediation of U.S. Secretary of State Henry Kissinger, Syria and Israel signed an agreement in Geneva that ended the fighting. Under the terms of the accord, Israel pulled back to the 1967 cease-fire line and also returned the city of Qunaytirah (Kuneitra) to Syria; a buffer zone, patrolled by UN troops, was established in the Golan Heights.

Since the 1970s the rise of Sunni Islamic fundamentalism has challenged Ba'athist ideology. Between 1976 and 1982, urban centers erupted in political unrest. The Muslim Brotherhood, a radical religious and political organization founded in 1928 in Egypt, was largely responsible for extremist attacks. In Feb., 1982, the brotherhood unsuccessfully attempted an uprising in Hama but was quashed by government troops; thousands were killed. Islamic fundamentalists, however, continue to remain active.

In 1976, Syria sent forces to Lebanon as part of a peacekeeping force to help end that country's civil war. The Syrian military remained in Lebanon, and from 1980 to 1981, Syrian troops sided with Lebanese Muslims against the Christian militias. With Israel's invasion of Lebanon in June, 1982, Syrian troops clashed with Israeli forces and were pushed back. Syria was also antagonized by Israel in 1982, when Menachem Begin announced the annexation of the Golan Heights. By the late 1990s, more than 40 Jewish settlements and villages had been developed in the Golan Heights. Although Israel withdrew from Lebanon in 1985, Syrian forces stayed; they remained the dominant military and political force there into 2005.

The Syrian government has been implicated in sponsoring international terrorism, especially in support of Iranian, Palestinian, and Libyan causes. In the 1980s, Syria moved closer to the USSR and espoused hard-line Arab positions. By 1990, however, as the Soviet system faltered, Syria attempted to improve relations with Western countries. That year Syria was the first Arab country to condemn Iraq's invasion of Kuwait, and it contributed 20,000 soldiers to the coalition forces in the Persian Gulf War (1991).

Syria, along with Lebanon and a joint Palestinian-Jordanian delegation, became involved in peace talks with Israel in late 1991. As talks progressed between Israel and the PLO and Jordan, Syria's insistence that Israel withdraw from all of the Golan Heights proved a stumbling block in its own negotiations. Talks broke off in 1996, but the Syrian government appeared interested in renewing negotiations following the installation of a Labor government in Israel in 1999. Talks were resumed in Dec., 1999. After what appeared to be initial progress, discussions stalled in Jan., 2000, when a secret draft treaty with Syrian concessions was published in Israel, leading to a public hardening of Syria's position with respect to the Golan.

In June, 2000, Assad died suddenly. His son, Bashar al-Assad, a 34-year-old doctor who had been groomed to succeed his father since 1994, rapidly became commander in chief of the army, head of the Ba'ath party, and then president. The son was regarded as an advocate of a free-market economy and political change, but economic liberalization proceeded slowly and he maintained a monopoly on political power. Syria strongly opposed the 2003 U.S. invasion of Iraq and was accused by U.S. government officials of supplying aid to Iraq and helping Iraqi officials to escape from U.S. forces. The United States later also accused Syria of permitting militants to infilitrate into Iraq. A new cabinet with a mandate to push reforms forward was appointed in Sept., 2003, but subsequently there was little noticeable political or economic reform.

In Oct., 2003, Israel struck at what it called a terrorist training base in Syria in retaliation for suicide-bombing attacks in Israel; it was the first Israeli strike against Syrian territory in 20 years. Simmering grievances among the nation's Kurds erupted into rare antigovernment protests in NE Syria in Mar., 2004.

In Aug. and Sept., 2004, Syria blatantly forced Lebanon to extend President Lahoud's term, an act that was denounced by the UN Security Council. The Feb., 2005, assassination of former Lebanese prime minister Rafik Hariri, who had opposed Syrian interference in Lebanon, led to anti-Syrian demonstrations in Lebanon and increased international pressure on Syria. Syria subsequently agreed to withdraw from Lebanon, and by the end of Apr., 2005, the withdrawal was completed. Syria nonetheless retained considerable influence in Lebanon.

A UN investigation into Hariri's killing implicated senior Syrian and Lebanese officials, but Syria refused to allow UN investigators to interview high-ranking Syrian officials, leading the Security Council to call unanimously for Syria to cooperate. Syria, however, vigorously rejected the vote and attempted to discredit the investigation, publicizing the recanting of one witness. However, a former Syrian vice president, Abdul Halim Khaddam, stated (Dec., 2005) that Syria had threatened Hariri and asserted that the assassination could not have happened without the support of high-ranking Syrian officials. (Khaddam, residing in Paris, also called for Assad to be removed from office.) Resistance to moving forward with the investigation from Syria's allies in Lebanon (most notably then-President Emile Lahoud and Hezbollah) blocked the Lebanese government from establishing an investigative tribunal and stalled any additional progress into 2008. By 2010, however, as the tribunal's investigation progressed, it appeared more likely to indicted members of Hezbollah than Syrian officials; in Apr., 2009, the four Lebanese officers who had been held since 2005 in connection with the case were released for lack of evidence.

Assad was reelected in May, 2007, by referendum (he was the only candidate). In Sept., 2007, the Israeli air force attacked a site in N Syria that some reports suggested was a nuclear facility under construction. International Atomic Energy Agency, which called on Syria to cooperate, ultimately concluded in its reports (2008, 2009, 2011) that evidence indicated that the facility was a nuclear reactor. Syria asserted the installation was a missile facilty. Also in 2009 the IAEA said it had found traces of processed uranium at another site, and it subsequently accused Syria of failing to cooperate.

An Arab League summit held in Syria in Mar., 2008, was attended by only half the Arab heads of state, as many sent lower-ranking officials as a protest against Syria's backing of Hezbollah and its allies in Lebanon. In Oct., 2008, U.S. forces launched a raid into Syria from Iraq in which U.S. sources claimed a key figure in the Iraq insurgency was killed; Syria denounced the attack, saying only civilians were killed, and mounted demonstrations against the attack.

Beginning in Mar., 2011, Syria faced ongoing antigovernment demonstrations in a number of cities similar to those in other parts of the Arab world. The protests were especially persistent early on in the southern city of Deraa; Homs, Hama, and many other locations subsequently became centers of protest. Only Damascus and Aleppo were largely free of protests. The government issued some concessions in response, including granting citizenship to thousands of Kurds in NE Syria, ending the 48-year state of emergency, and (later) allowing some opposition parties, but it also accused its opponents of armed insurrection and violently suppressed protests. There also were anti-Alawite attacks by government opponents. Antigovernment demonstrations nonetheless continued, and the unrest turned into civil war as some troops defected and fought against government forces and others also took up arms.

In September leaders of opposition groups announced the formation of the national council, but the opposition continued to lack unity and the council was dominated by exile groups. The Arab League suspended Syria's membership and imposed some economic sanctions in November; other nations also imposed sanctions in 2011 and 2012. In December, Arab League monitors entered Syria to oversee an agreement intended to end the violence, but they had no effect on the situation. The violence continued in 2012, with deadly fighting in many urban areas, including Damascus and Aleppo. Government forces were accused of brutally targeting civilians and of killing them in mass executions.

The 90% vote for a new constitution (Feb., 2012) was denounced by the opposition as a sham; the opposition also boycotted the May parliamentary elections. Former UN head Kofi Annan negotiated a cease-fire in April, but it never really took effect, and the associated UN observers withdrew in August. Relations with Turkey, which was critical of Assad and supportive of Turkmen rebels, became tense after a Turkish fighter jet that crossed into Syrian airspace was downed. In October, cross-border fire into Turkey led to recurring retaliatory bombardment; there were similar incidents with Jordan and Israel. Subsequently, in the following months and years, Israel launched dozens of air strikes in Syria that were said to be directed at military supplies for Hezbollah; it also attacked Syrian military installations and Iranian forces in Syria at times.

Opposition fighters remained ethnically and religiously fragmented. A more broadly based opposition National Coalition was formed in Nov., 2012, as a result of international pressure on opposition groups, but forces aligned with it subsequently became less significant. Kurdish groups sought to establish an autonomous Kurdish area. Hardline Islamist groups, not part of the coalition, became increasingly significant, and often fought other rebels. Shiite fighters from other nations, especially Lebanese Hezbollah, became a significant component of government-aligned forces in 2013, as did support from Iran.

In June, 2014, the Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant (ISIL), a Sunni Islamist rebel group, also launched an offensive in Iraq that gave it control of a large territory in N and E Syria and in NW Iraq; it declared a caliphate as the Islamic State (IS) and became the dominant rebel group in Syria. IS advances and atrocities in Iraq and Syria in 2014 led to U.S. air strikes against it; the first strikes in Syria began in September, and the United States subsequently also targeted other Islamist militant groups in Syria. Other nations subsequently also targeted IS forces with air strikes.

Both government and rebel forces were accused of using chemical weapons. An Aug., 2013, attack in Damascus in which more than 1,300 died was linked by Western governments to the government. Under threat of U.S. attack, the Assad regime agreed to the supervised destruction of its chemical weapons stockpile, most which was accomplished by Sept., 2014, but it was unclear if Syria had omitted any weapons. A Dec., 2013, UN report confirmed that the August attack involved chemical weapons, and found credible evidence of the weapons' use in prior incidents. Beginning in 2014, there were many accusations of chlorine gas attacks by the Syrian government; chlorine had not been among the weapons Syria had to declare. A UN report in 2020 found evidence of Syria's use of chlorine and possibly sarin in attacks in 2017. Both sides in the conflict have been accused by human-rights groups of committing war crimes.

Assad was reelected in a vote that occurred (June, 2014) during the civil war and involved minor opponents. He was reported to have won 89% of the vote, with a 73% turnout (voting only occurred in government-controlled areas). The election and result were criticized by the opposition and many foreign governments as a sham.

By mid-2015 the government controlled or contested much of E Syria, having made gains there since 2013, while various rebel groups were in control mainly in the north and west. Syrian Kurds and their Arab and other rebel allies made advances against the IS during 2015, but the Kurds also found themselves coming under occasional attack from Turkish forces, a situation that continued into 2018. In Sept., 2015, Russia began air strikes in Syria against rebels more generally, to bolster Assad and support his forces, which had suffered reverses. Government forces subsquently made significant gains, and Russian air and other forces were key to government gains in the following years. Russian participation in the conflict ultimately involved more than 60,000 troops.

A cease-fire was established in Feb., 2016, but it did not include the IS and other hardline Islamists, and it soon collapsed. In Apr., 2016, legislative elections were held in government-controlled parts of Syria; the opposition denounced the vote. Turkish troops crossed into N Syria in mid-2016 in support of Arab and Turkmen rebels fighting the IS and to thwart Kurdish rebels west of the Euphrates. Attempts to provide humanitarian aid to civilians in besieged rebel-held Aleppo in the second half of 2016 were largely unsuccessful; the Syrian government regained control of the city in Dec., 2016. U.S.-supported Arab-Kurdish forces, meanwhile, had largely secured control of Hasaka prov. in NE Syria by mid-2016, and by late 2017 had largely secured Ar Raqqah (Raqqa), which had been used by the IS as its capital.

A cease-fire brokered by Russia and Turkey in Dec., 2016, did not include hardline Islamists or the Kurds, and did not halt government offenses aimed at clearing rebels from the Damascus suburbs. In Mar. and Apr., 2017, apparent nerve gas attacks occurred in Hama and Idlib prov. The United States accused Syria of violating the 2013 agreement and launched a missile strike at the air base the United States identified as the origin of the attack; Syria denied using chemical weapons, the United Nations later accused Syria of the attack. Continued offensives by Syrian government forces and their allies ended IS control of most Syrian towns in late 2017. The successes gave the government control of more than half of Syria.

In Jan., 2018, Turkish and Syrian Arab rebels launched an assault on Kurdish positions in NW Syria to seize an enclave the Turkish border that Kurds had controlled since 2012; the main city of Afrin and most of the surrounding region was captured by the Turks and their allies in March. An apparent poison gas attack against the town of Douma, near Damascus, in Apr., 2018, led to missile and air attacks against Syrian facilities by U.S., British, and French forces. By the end of 2018, further fighting in central E and SW Syria had given the government control of nearly all the country except for the rebel-held areas around Idlib, where a demilitarized zone was established in October; Turkish-controlled areas along the northern border; and Kurdish-controlled areas E of the Euphrates, where a pocket of IS-held territory also remained. By Mar., 2019, Kurdish led forces had taken the last IS-held territory, although the IS remained capable of launching attacks, and Al Qaida–aligned forces controlled most of the rebel areas around Idlib, where Syrian government forces continued to advance. Fighting in Idlib prov., in April and then beginning in December, displaced some 400,000 and 350,000 Syrians respectively.

In Aug., 2019, Turkey and the United States agreed to create in N Syria a so-called safe zone, in which Kurdish forces would be withdrawn, along part of the E Syria-Turkey border, and Kurds later began withdrawing from some areas. In October, however, after Turkey again threatened to invade Kurdish-held border areas, U.S. President Trump abruptly ordered U.S. forces allied with the Kurds to be pulled from the border region. (Trump's order was later extended to all of Syria, but subsequently that order was in large part reversed over concerns about the Islamic State.) Turkey and its Syrian Arab allies invaded Kurdish-held border areas, and were accused committing war crimes; tens of thousands fled the fighting. In some areas Kurds ceded control to Syrian government and Russian forces, and there was fighting at times between Turkish and Syrian forces. The United States secured a pause in the fighting to allow Kurds to withdraw from the border; subsequently Russia and Turkey agreed to establish an 18-mi (30-km) safe zone along nearly all of the Syria-Turkey border E of the Euphrates, with Turkey retaining control of areas it had seized.

In early 2020, Syrian advances in Idlib prov. displaced nearly 1 million people, and led to fighting between Syrian and Turkish forces as Turkey increased its outposts and forces in the area. A truce was declared in March after negotiations between Turkey and Russia, but fighting between Syrian and rebel forces flared again in April. The legislative elections were postponed from April to July due to COVID-19, and again were held only in government-controlled parts of Syria. The ruling party again easily won a majority of the seats. During the civil war, many people have been arrested or have disappeared while in government or rebel custody, and approximately 6.8 million have fled the country and approximately the same number were forcibly displaced inside Syria. As of fall 2021, Assad still held power and effectively had "won" the Civil War (although a portion of Northeastern Syria remained out of government control), but the country's economy was in shambles.

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